JPMorgan, Goldman profits rise sharply

NEW YORK — Two major Wall Street banks reported a surge in profits during the last three months of 2012, but analysts cast doubt on whether that will continue this year.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the country's largest bank by assets, posted $5.7 billion in earnings in the fourth quarter, a 53% increase from the same period a year ago. Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported earnings of $2.8 billion, nearly tripling its haul from the same period a year ago.

The results sailed past analyst projections, providing a window into Wall Street's profitability as the economy struggles to recover and as the industry grapples with new banking regulations.

"We're definitely coming out of the abyss," said Ken Leon, a banking analyst at S&P Capital IQ. But, he cautioned: "We are not anywhere near euphoria."

Investors sent both firms' shares higher Wednesday, during a week in which Citigroup, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will also report earnings.

JPMorgan's profit was buoyed by growth tied to an improving housing market, investment banking and its own investments. The bank reported big jumps in mortgages — originations of $52 million, up 33%. Commercial loans grew 14% in the fourth quarter, to a record $128 billion.

The bank's profit also got a boost from reserves released because of borrowers' improving credit and the decreased likelihood they would default on their loans.

JPMorgan's earnings were weighed down by an approximately $700-million expense for its chunk of the so-called Independent Foreclosure Review settlement. The bank was one of 10 major financial companies that reached the $8.5-billion settlement — announced last week — with federal regulators to end their probe of alleged foreclosure abuses.

While the bank saw a 12% jump in profit overall last year thanks in large part to a decline in provisions for credit losses, revenue was essentially flat compared to 2011.

Despite JPMorgan's surge in profit, the bank's board punished Chairman and Chief Executive Jamie Dimon for management failures that led to the bank suffering about $6 billion in losses from risky derivatives bets made by a trader nicknamed the "London Whale."

JPMorgan's board of directors slashed Dimon's pay 50%, saying he "bears ultimate responsibility" for missteps by the bank's chief investment office. The losses were disclosed last May.

"This was one huge, embarrassing mistake," he said.

One of the highest-paid and most-respected figures on Wall Street, Dimon will take in $11.5 million in 2012 compensation, down from a $23-million pay package in 2011.

His 2012 salary remained flat at last year's $1.5 million, but his overall compensation includes $10 million in restricted stock units, down sharply from the previous year. Dimon said he respected the board's decision.

Charles Elson, director of the John L. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance at the University of Delaware, said the rare docking of a major bank chief's pay made an important symbolic statement that executives should be paid based on their performance.

"It's not going to change his lifestyle," Elson said of Dimon's pay cut, "but it certainly makes the point."

Looking ahead, Dimon expressed optimism about the economy.

"Consumers, businesses, housing and small businesses — they're all in pretty good shape," he said in a call with analysts.

But sustaining growth in mortgage origination could prove challenging this year, and low interest rates make traditional banking less profitable, analysts said.

"Traditional banking is not making nearly as much money," said Lance Roberts, who heads StreetTalk Advisors, an investment advisory firm. "There's a big disconnect between the profitability of the banks and Main Street America."

While Goldman's profit in investment banking and trading surged, the bank's results were lifted by its own private-equity investments and an 11% reduction in compensation, Goldman's biggest expense. Goldman has become a profit powerhouse and its employees are among the most highly compensated on Wall Street.

JPMorgan's stock added 47 cents, or 1%, to $46.82 in trading Wednesday. Goldman gained $5.50, or 4%, to $141.09 a share.

andrew.tangel@latimes.com

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Judge Tells Apple, Amazon to Try to Settle Their 'Appstore' Beef

The judge presiding over the Apple and Amazon lawsuit over rights to the “appstore” name has told the two companies to sit down and at least try to settle their dispute before trial.

San Francisco U.S. Magistrate Judge Elizabeth Laporte issued an order Tuesday telling the two sides to talk it out. This doesn’t mean they’ll come to terms before the August 19 trial, but they must at least pretend to try.

If the talks, first reported by Bloomberg, don’t lead to a settlement, the mess lands in U.S. District Judge Phyllis Hamilton’s courtroom in Oakland. Hamilton, like Laporte, seems tired of the bickering. On January 2, Hamilton dismissed Apple’s claim that the Amazon Appstore for Android was falsely advertising itself as an app store for iOS apps. No one is confusing the Appstore for Apple’s App Store, she said.

Apple filed its lawsuit against Amazon the day the Appstore for Android (which only sells apps that run on Google’s Android operating system) went live, back on March 22, 2011. The iPhone maker is accusing Amazon of infringing on its copyrighted “App Store” name. Meanwhile, Amazon countersued Apple, arguing that “app store” is a generic phrase and that Apple shouldn’t be the only company to use the term.

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Fox hires Dennis Kucinich as analyst

NEW YORK (AP) — Days before President Barack Obama‘s inauguration for a second term in office, Fox News Channel has signed Dennis Kucinich, one of his former opponents, to be a regular contributor.

Kucinich, a presidential candidate in 2004 and 2008 who ended 16 years in Congress two weeks ago, will make his debut as a Fox contributor on Thursday’s edition of “The O’Reilly Factor,” the network said Wednesday.

“I’ve always been impressed with Rep. Kucinich’s fearlessness and thoughtfulness about important issues,” Fox News Chairman Roger Ailes said. “His willingness to take a stand from his point of view makes him a valuable voice in our country’s debate.”

Fox is the nation’s top-ranked cable news network, particularly popular with Republicans. Its big-name Republican contributors include Karl Rove, Sarah Palin and John Bolton. Democrats in the Fox stable include Evan Bayh, Joe Trippi and Bob Beckel.

Kucinich was elected to the Cleveland city council at age 23 and, at 31, became one of the nation’s youngest mayors. He’s also been an Ohio state senator and run his own communications and marketing firm.

“Fox News has always provided me with an opportunity to share my perspective with its enormous viewership,” he said.

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Study Confirms Benefits of Flu Vaccine for Pregnant Women

While everyone is being urged to get the flu vaccine as soon as possible, some pregnant women avoid it in the belief that it may harm their babies. A large new study confirms that they should be much more afraid of the flu than the vaccine.

Norwegian researchers studied fetal death among 113,331 women pregnant during the H1N1 flu pandemic of 2009-2010. Some 54,065 women were unvaccinated, 31,912 were vaccinated during pregnancy, and 27,354 were vaccinated after delivery. The scientists then reviewed hospitalizations and doctor visits for the flu among the women.

The results were published on Thursday in The New England Journal of Medicine.

The flu vaccine was not associated with an increased risk for fetal death, the researchers found, and getting the shot during pregnancy reduced the risk of the mother getting the flu by about 70 percent. That was important, because fetuses whose mothers got the flu were much more likely to die.

Unvaccinated women had a 25 percent higher risk of fetal death during the pandemic than those who had had the shot. Among pregnant women with a clinical diagnosis of influenza, the risk of fetal death was nearly doubled. In all, there were 16 fetal deaths among the 2,278 women who were diagnosed with influenza during pregnancy.

Dr. Marian Knight, a professor at the perinatal epidemiology unit of the University of Oxford, who was not involved in the research, called it “a high-quality national study” that shows “there is no evidence of an increased risk of fetal death in women who have been immunized. Clinicians and women can be reassured about the safety of the vaccine in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy.”

The Norwegian health system records vaccinations of individuals and maintains linked registries to track effects and side effects. The lead author, Dr. Camilla Stoltenberg, director of the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, said that there are few countries with such complete records.

“This is a great study,” said Dr. Denise J. Jamieson, an obstetrician and a medical officer at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, who was not involved in the work. “It’s nicely done, with good data, and it’s additional information about the importance of the flu vaccine for pregnant women. It shows that it’s effective and might reduce the risk for fetal death.”

In Norway, the vaccine is recommended only in the second and third trimesters, so the study includes little data on vaccination in the first trimester. The C.D.C. recommends the vaccine for all pregnant women, regardless of trimester.

“We knew from other studies that the vaccine protects the woman and the newborn,” Dr. Stoltenberg said. “This study clearly indicates that it protects fetuses as well. I seriously suggest that pregnant women get vaccinated during every flu season.”

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F.A.A. Orders Grounding of U.S.-Operated Boeing 787s

Kyodo News, via Reuters

An All Nippon Airways Boeing 787 Dreamliner made an emergency landing at Takamatsu airport in western Japan on Wednesday.

The Federal Aviation Administration said Wednesday that it was temporarily grounding all Boeing 787s operated by United States carriers after several incidents in recent weeks, including a battery fire, and after an All Nippon Airways flight in Japan was forced to make an emergency landing on Wednesday.

The F.A.A.'s emergency airworthiness directive only applies directly to United Airlines, currently the sole American carrier using the new plane, with six 787s. But the agency said it would alert other aviation regulators to take similar action, and it seems likely that international carriers will comply with the directive.

Eight airlines now fly the plane, known as the Dreamliner. All Nippon Airways and Japan Airlines in Japan own 24 of the 49 delivered by Boeing since November 2011. The other operators are Air India, Ethiopian Airlines, LAN Airlines of Chile, LOT of Poland and Qatar Airways. Orders for about 800 additional 787s are in the pipeline.

“The F.A.A. will work with the manufacturer and carriers to develop a corrective action plan to allow the U.S. 787 fleet to resume operations as quickly and safely as possible,” the F.A.A. said in a statement.

Thanks to its extensive use of lighter composite materials and more efficient engines, the 787 is expected to usher a new era of more fuel-efficient travel, particularly over long distances.

But so far, the aircraft’s problems have been linked to a feature that had garnered much less attention until now: the 787’s extensive use of electric systems. Unlike modern passenger jets built in the past decades, which use mechanical and pneumatic systems to power hydraulic pumps, the 787 makes extensive use of electrical systems instead.

The emergency landing of the All Nippon plane on Wednesday followed a string of problems in the past month with the 787, including a battery fire, fuel leaks and a cracked cockpit window. All Nippon said the problems Wednesday involved the same lithium-ion batteries that caught fire last week in Boston on a Dreamliner operated by Japan Airlines.

In the episode early Wednesday, the 137 passengers and crew members aboard a flight from Yamaguchi Ube Airport, in western Japan, to Tokyo used emergency slides to leave the aircraft early after battery trouble and an “unusual smell” in the cockpit prompted its pilots to land instead at Takamatsu airport, according to All Nippon. The jet’s main battery in the front of the plane was later found to have become discolored and to be seeping electrolyte fluid, All Nippon said.

Ryosei Nomura, a spokesman for All Nippon, said Wednesday that the airline was temporarily grounding all 17 of its Dreamliners for inspections, leading to the cancellation of 38 domestic and international flights. Japan Airlines also said it would ground the five Dreamliners it was operating; two other aircraft were already undergoing safety checks.

Last week, the F.A.A. ordered a comprehensive review of the Dreamliner’s manufacturing and design, with a focus on the plane’s electrical systems. During a news conference last Thursday, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood made no mention of grounding Dreamliners.

Hiroko Tabuchi contributed reporting from Tokyo, and Bettina Wassener from Hong Kong.

This article has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: January 16, 2013

An earlier version of this article published online misstated the number of Boeing 787s already delivered worldwide. It is 49, not 50.

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San Diego Zoo, Audubon pair up to help save animals

SAN DIEGO — Two organizations known for their work in saving imperiled species agreed Tuesday to build a breeding center that will bring some of the world's most exotic and endangered birds and hoofed mammals to a 1,000-acre site near the Mississippi River.

The new facility will include open-air enclosures for animals of more than two dozen species, including whooping cranes, okapis, bongos (a type of antelope), storks, flamingos, Masai giraffes, oryx and other creatures, under the agreement signed by the San Diego Zoo Global and New Orleans-based Audubon Nature Institute.

"They have the land and we have the majority of the species that need assistance," said Robert Wiese, chief life sciences officer for San Diego Zoo Global, which manages field programs in 35 countries.

The partnership is based on the realization that animals breed better when they have room to roam. Even at the San Diego Zoo's ample Safari Park, space has become pinched.

The new facility, south of New Orleans, is to be named the Alliance for Sustainable Wildlife.

Many of the species are imperiled by loss of habitat in their native Africa, officials said.

For example, the okapi, an unusual animal that looks a zebra but is related to the giraffe, is threatened by the volatile politics of Central Africa and the continued loss of dense rain forest habitat. The brightly colored bongo, among the largest of the African antelope species, is threatened by poaching and habitat loss in Central and West Africa.

"We want to retain a large population in case the worst happens in Africa," Wiese said.

Jim Maddy, president and chief executive of the Assn. of Zoos and Aquariums, said the partnership "demonstrates the creativity and resourcefulness of these two great organizations."

The Audubon Nature Institute, which operates museums and parks in the New Orleans area, owns the property, which already includes a research facility and a breeding center for cranes.

Construction at the center is set to begin this fall; the breeding program is expected to get underway next year. The San Diego Zoo will transfer some of its animals to the site. There are no plans in the first years to permit public access.

Douglas Myers, president of San Diego Zoo Global, said the two organizations hope the alliance "will be a model for collaborative efforts in the future."

The 1,000-acre site has sufficient elevation and drainage to withstand flooding from storms that sweep in from the Gulf of Mexico, officials said. The site, once owned by the Coast Guard, suffered only slight damage from Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Still, "there is no totally safe, risk-free place," Wiese said.

tony.perry@latimes.com

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Syria Dropped Hallucinogen Weapon on Rebels, Secret Cable Says

The Syrian military used an exotic chemical weapon on rebels during an attack in the city of Homs, U.S. officials now believe.

The conclusion — first reported by Foreign Policy’s Josh Rogin and laid out in a secret cable from the U.S. consul general in Istanbul — contradicts preliminary estimates made by American officials in the hours after the December 23 strike. But after interviews with Syrian activists, doctors, and defectors, the U.S. has apparently rendered a different verdict.

“We can’t definitely say 100 percent, but Syrian contacts made a compelling case that Agent 15 was used in Homs on Dec. 23,” an unnamed U.S. official tells Rogin. Danger Room has been unable to independently verify the claims. It’s important to note that this was the conclusion of a single consulate within the State Department, and there is still wide disagreement within the U.S. government over whether the Homs attack should be characterized as a chemical weapons incident.

Agent 15 is another name for 3-quinuclidinyl benzilate or BZ, a powerful hallucinogen that the American military tested out on its own soldiers during the Cold War. Its emergence on the Syrian battlefield would be nothing short of bizarre. While Syria is well-known to have a massive supply of chemical weapons, international observers haven’t ordinarily included BZ on that list. And while there have been rumors of BZ being used on a battlefield — including one that Iraqi insurgents were dosing themselves with the drug to pump up their aggressiveness — this would be the first confirmed case of BZ employed as a weapon.

International leaders, including President Obama, have called the use of chemical arms in Syria a “red line” that could trigger outside intervention in the civil war that has killed more than 60,000 people. It’s unclear whether the White House would consider a BZ strike to be a transgression of that line; Agent 15 isn’t nearly as deadly as a nerve agent like sarin. Last week, America’s top military officer said preventing a chemical attack by the Assad regime would be “almost unachievable.”

American and allied intelligence services have been watching the Syrian government’s acquisition and possible use of chemical weapon components for years. They’ve blocked the importation of precursor chemicals and equipment into Syria when they’ve been able, and immediately reported to the White House when the Syrian military began mixing those precursor chemicals and loading them into munitions for a possible attack.

But when U.S. officials first caught wind of Syrian rebels’ chemical weapons claim, the officials didn’t make much of it. In graphic videos uploaded to YouTube, opposition activists said they were hit by a gas that was “something similar to sarin,” a deadly nerve agent. The videos showed victims howling in agony and barely able to breathe. But the symptoms, as gruesome as they were, didn’t seem like the one produced by sarin.

There were complaints of strong smells in the videos; sarin is odorless. There were reports that the victims inhaled large amounts of the chemical; a minuscule of amount of inhaled sarin can be fatal.

“It just doesn’t jibe with chemical weapons,” one U.S. official told Danger Room at the time.

But the loss of vision, pain, dizziness, and paralysis reported by the Syrian American Medical Society may correspond more closely with a different kind of unconventional attack.

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Singer Jessica Simpson to star in TV comedy

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) – Pop singer Jessica Simpson is set to star in a television pilot in development for NBC that is loosely based on her life, executive producer Ben Silverman said on Tuesday.

The comedy could be Simpson‘s first step back into a major acting role in more than five years.

The former teen pop star is best known for her reality TV shows, including MTV’s “Newlyweds: Nick and Jessica,” which followed Simpson and her first husband and fellow pop singer Nick Lachey. She also served as a mentor on NBC’s “Fashion Star.”

Simpson, 32, will play a celebrity who must balance life as a mother and a public figure, Silverman told Reuters.

The singer gave birth to her first child in May 2012 and said last month that she was pregnant with her second.

“The show is inspired by her life as she’s going through a new phase in her life becoming a mom,” said Silverman, who is the creator of NBC’s reality show “The Biggest Loser.”

“It’s a combination of ‘I Love Lucy’ and ‘Curb Your Enthusiasm,’” he added, referring to the classic 1950s Lucille Ball comedy series and the HBO series by “Seinfeld” creator Larry David.

Simpson will also serve as an executive producer.

In 2004, Simpson taped a pilot for the ABC network about a pop star who becomes a TV news anchor, but it never became a series.

Simpson’s film credits include 2005′s “The Dukes of Hazzard” and 2006′s “Employee of the Month.”

(Reporting by Eric Kelsey, editing by Jill Serjeant and Stacey Joyce)

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Well: How to Go Vegan

When I first heard former President Bill Clinton talk about his vegan diet, I was inspired to make the switch myself. After all, if a man with a penchant for fast-food burgers and Southern cooking could go vegan, surely I could too.

At the grocery store, I stocked up on vegan foods, including almond milk (that was the presidential recommendation), and faux turkey and cheese to replicate my daughter’s favorite sandwich. But despite my good intentions, my cold-turkey attempt to give up, well, turkey (as well as other meats, dairy and eggs) didn’t go well. My daughter and I couldn’t stand the taste of almond milk, and the fake meat and cheese were unappealing.

Since then, I’ve spoken with numerous vegan chefs and diners who say it can be a challenge to change a lifetime of eating habits overnight. They offer the following advice for stocking your vegan pantry and finding replacements for key foods like cheese and other dairy products.

NONDAIRY MILK Taste all of them to find your favorite. Coconut and almond milks (particularly canned coconut milk) are thicker and good to use in cooking, while rice milk is thinner and is good for people who are allergic to nuts or soy. My daughter and I both prefer the taste of soy milk and use it in regular or vanilla flavor for fruit smoothies and breakfast cereal.

NONDAIRY CHEESE Cheese substitutes are available under the brand names Daiya, Tofutti and Follow Your Heart, among others, but many vegans say there’s no fake cheese that satisfies as well as the real thing. Rather than use a packaged product, vegan chefs prefer to make homemade substitutes using cashews, tofu, miso or nutritional yeast. At Candle 79, a popular New York vegan restaurant, the filling for saffron ravioli with wild mushrooms and cashew cheese is made with cashews soaked overnight and then blended with lemon juice, olive oil, water and salt.

THINK CREAMY, NOT CHEESY Creaminess and richness can often be achieved without a cheese substitute. For instance, Chloe Coscarelli, a vegan chef and the author of “Chloe’s Kitchen,” has created a pizza with caramelized onion and butternut squash that will make you forget it doesn’t have cheese; the secret is white-bean and garlic purée. She also offers a creamy, but dairy-free, avocado pesto pasta. My daughter and I have discovered we actually prefer the rich flavor of butternut squash ravioli, which can be found frozen and fresh in supermarkets, to cheese-filled ravioli.

NUTRITIONAL YEAST The name is unappetizing, but many vegan chefs swear by it: it’s a natural food with a roasted, nutty, cheeselike flavor. Ms. Coscarelli uses nutritional yeast flakes in her “best ever” baked macaroni and cheese (found in her cookbook). “I’ve served this to die-hard cheese lovers,” she told me, “and everyone agrees it is comparable, if not better.”

Susan Voisin’s Web site, Fat Free Vegan Kitchen, offers a nice primer on nutritional yeast, noting that it’s a fungus (think mushrooms!) that is grown on molasses and then harvested and dried with heat. (Baking yeast is an entirely different product.) Nutritional yeasts can be an acquired taste, she said, so start with small amounts, sprinkling on popcorn, stirring into mashed potatoes, grinding with almonds for a Parmesan substitute or combining with tofu to make an eggless omelet. It can be found in Whole Foods, in the bulk aisle of natural-foods markets or online.

BUTTER This is an easy fix. Vegan margarines like Earth Balance are made from a blend of oils and are free of trans fats. Varieties include soy-free, whipped and olive oil.

EGGS Ms. Coscarelli, who won the Food Network’s Cupcake Wars with vegan cupcakes, says vinegar and baking soda can help baked goods bind together and rise, creating a moist and fluffy cake without eggs. Cornstarch can substitute for eggs to thicken puddings and sauces. Vegan pancakes are made with a tablespoon of baking powder instead of eggs. Frittatas and omelets can be replicated with tofu.

Finally, don’t try to replicate your favorite meaty foods right away. If you love a juicy hamburger, meatloaf or ham sandwich, you are not going to find a meat-free version that tastes the same. Ms. Voisin advises new vegans to start slow and eat a few vegan meals a week. Stock your pantry with lots of grains, lentils and beans and pile your plate with vegetables. To veganize a recipe, start with a dish that is mostly vegan already — like spaghetti — and use vegetables or a meat substitute for the sauce.

“Trying to recapture something and find an exact substitute is really hard,” she said. “A lot of people will try a vegetarian meatloaf right after they become vegetarian, and they hate it. But after you get away from eating meat for a while, you’ll find you start to develop other tastes, and the flavor of a lentil loaf with seasonings will taste great to you. It won’t taste like meat loaf, but you’ll appreciate it for itself.”

Ms. Voisin notes that she became a vegetarian and then vegan while living in a small town in South Carolina; she now lives in Jackson, Miss.

“If I can be a vegan in these not-quite-vegan-centric places, you can do it anywhere,” she said. “I think people who try to do it all at once overnight are more apt to fail. It’s a learning process.”

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What are your tips for vegan cooking and eating? Share your suggestions on ingredients, recipes and strategies by posting a comment below or tweeting with the hashtag #vegantips.

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Economic Scene: When Privatization Works, and Why It Doesn’t Always

William Philpott/Agence France Presse — Getty Images

The remnants of a BP refinery in Texas City after a 2005  explosion. BP had a string of accidents following its privatization. 

Few corporate sagas capture the virtues and vices of state-owned companies and private enterprise better than the drama of BP’s roller-coaster ride between failure and success.

Ten years ago, BP was the darling of the energy world — the unprofitable duckling transformed by privatization under the government of Margaret Thatcher into a highly profitable swan.

The London civil servants of the 1960s and ’70s who all but ignored profitability as they issued directives across British Petroleum’s bloated corporate network were replaced by highly motivated managers who were rewarded for cutting costs, reducing risk and making money. The company’s more incongruous businesses — food production and uranium mines, for instance — were sold. Payroll was cut by more than half. Oil reserves jumped. The time it took to drill a deepwater well plummeted. Profits soared.

But then, in 2005, a BP refinery in Texas City blew up, killing 15 and injuring around 170. In 2006, a leak in a BP pipeline spilled hundreds of thousands of gallons of oil in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. And in 2010, an explosion on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig killed 11 and resulted in the biggest offshore oil spill in the history of the United States. These days, BP’s stock trades about 25 percent below where it was before the disaster off the coast of Louisiana, about the same place it was a decade ago.

BP’s bumpy ride is recorded in “The Org: The Underlying Logic of the Office,” a compelling new book by Ray Fisman, a professor at Columbia Business School, and Tim Sullivan, the editorial director of Harvard Business Review Press. “The Org” aims to explain why organizations — be they private companies or government agencies — work the way they do.

The book offers telling insight on a topic that has ebbed and flowed across the world over the last 30 years, as governments of all stripes have set out to privatize state-owned enterprises and outsource services — what does the private sector do better than government, and what does it do worse? Long dormant in the United States, the debate has acquired new urgency as governments from Washington to state houses and city halls around the country consider privatizing everything from Medicare to the management of state parks as a possible solution to their budget woes. One the authors’ chief insights is that every organization faces trade-offs — inherent conflicts between competing objectives. The challenge is to manage them. This is way more difficult than it sounds.

While in government hands, British Petroleum paid too little attention to profitability, constrained by its need to please elected officials who often cared more about keeping energy cheap and employment high. But in private hands, it may have cared about profits far too much, at the expense of other objectives. “BP veered from being a company that made sure nothing blew up to one focusing on cost-cutting at all costs,” Professor Fisman said.

The success or failure of an organization often depends on whether it can clearly identify its goals and align the interests of managers and employees to serve them. Yet whatever reward structure an organization picks can skew incentives in an undesirable way.

“The Org” tells us of the sociologist Peter Moskos, who joined the Baltimore police force to study police behavior. The police hierarchy demanded arrests, so police officers arrested people: 20,000 in one year in the Eastern District alone, out of a local population of 45,000. One officer set a record by locking up people for violating bicycle regulations. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, Baltimore’s murder rate continued to climb.

“The more we reward those things that we can measure, and not reward the things we care about but don’t measure, the more we will distort behavior,” observed Burton Weisbrod, a professor of economics at Northwestern University who was a pioneer in research on the comparative behavior of nonprofit institutions, corporations and government organizations. As Professor Fisman and Mr. Sullivan put it: “If what gets measured is what gets managed, then what gets managed is what gets done.”

Rewarding teachers for how well their students perform on standard math and reading tests will encourage lots of teaching of reading and math, at the expense of other things an education might provide. Private prison operators who bid for government contracts by offering the lowest cost per inmate will most likely focus on cutting costs rather than tightening security. Unsupervised apple pickers who are paid by the apple will probably pick them off the ground.

This insight is important to the debate over the competence of public and private organizations because it underscores a significant difference in how they meet their goals. Profit is one of the most potent incentives known to man — a powerful tool to align managers’ interests with corporate goals. But it also has drawbacks. With earnings as the overriding, nonnegotiable priority, private enterprise often has little wiggle room to handle the tension between conflicting objectives.

There are instances in which privatization can help achieve broad social goals. After Argentina privatized many of its municipal water supply systems in the 1990s, investment soared, the network expanded into previously underserved poor areas and the number of children dying of infectious and parasitic diseases tumbled. (Most water companies were nonetheless renationalized by a later government.)

Still, our recent memory of mortgage banks blindly offering risky mortgages to shaky borrowers and bundling them into complex bonds to sell to unwary investors should dispel the notion that the profit motive inevitably aligns incentives in a socially desirable way.

The pursuit of financial rewards, by private companies or even nonprofit organizations, can directly undermine public policy goals. A recent study found that private universities and colleges collect higher fees from poor students who receive Pell Grants, absorbing over half the value of federal aid. Public colleges, by contrast, do not discriminate against those who get aid.

This suggests a good rule of thumb to determine when a private company will outperform the public sector: if the task is clear-cut and it’s possible to define concrete goals and reward those who meet them, the private sector will probably do better. “If I can write a perfect contract in which I pay for a concrete observable outcome, can rule out cream-skimming and can ensure the measure is not gamed, there is no reason that the private sector can’t do it better,” Professor Fisman said.

But if the objectives are complex and diffuse — making it difficult to align profit with goals without undermining some other desirable outcome — the profit motive could well make conflicts more difficult to manage. In these cases, privatization is probably not the best solution. In their rush to save money by outsourcing services, governments might forget that.

E-mail: eporter@nytimes.com;

Twitter: @portereduardo

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